Weekly Golf Betting Preview – Race to Dubai
Wednesday, May 13th, 2009After the sunny climbs of continental Western Europe the Race to Dubai reaches the Emerald Isle this week for the Irish Open. Expect the temperatures to drop, the wind to get up and the rain to come down in what looks like a competitive tournament at Baltry, Co Louth this week.
Head of the betting is Padraig Harrington at 10/1 with totesport. After becoming a victim of an intervention from his nearest and dearest in Florida last week, Harrington recognises that his obsessing of the perfect swing is holding him back so far in 2009 and although he’s promised to knuckle down to just playing the game, I wouldn’t expect him to be ready to win this tournament just yet.
Another Irishman Rory McIlroy has had a fantastic start to the season and comes here fresh from some valuable time on the US Tour. After finishing in the top 25 in his first 5 starts in the States he’s tailed off a little since the masters missing his first cut last week at the TPC. What with the traveling and added pressure of being on home soil this week the 14/1 about his chances doesn’t appeal.
Lee Westwood completes the three who are clear at the top of the betting. The Englishman is 16 to win here with totesport but continued question marks over his putting and short game, plus his inability to come good on the final day he’s another one that can be left alone this week.
So, with 25/1 bar the rest of the field where is the value this week. Well Thomas Bjorn has had a rise in fortunes in recent weeks with two top ten finishes in consecutive weeks. As a result he’s been clipped in to 25/1 this week, but the flat-stick still seems to be his downfall and coming down the stretch in contention you wouldn’t be a confident backer. Gonzalez Fernandez-Castano looks a far better bet at 28/1. The Spaniard had three consecutive runners up spots to his name last month and although he failed to back this up on home turf in the Open de Espana, he comes here fresh after a couple of weeks off and could go close again.
Thomas Levet won in Spain but it’s another Frenchman that catches the eye here. Raphael Jacquelin comes here fresh from finishing second in Italy last week and also has some course form finishing second here back in 2004, the last time the course was played on tour. Jacquelin’s form has been patchy, but he knows how to win having two tour titles to his name, the last back in 2007 at the BMW Asian Open. You can back Jacquelin at 33/1 with totesport.
At bigger prices, there’s a trio of players on 50/1 who might be worth an each-way bet, all for different reasons. Firstly Paul McGinley looks the pick of the Irishmen this week. It’s fair to say that McGinley’s had some wretched form with the putter, but he looked to put some of those demons to bed at last month’s China Open where he finished tied for eighth. He finished fifth when playing here in 2004 and was a junior member at this course, so providing he clicks on the greens we could see a return to form this week.
Louis Oosthuizen started 2009 in blistering form, finishing in the top 10 four times in four consecutive tournaments at the start of the year including two second place finishes in the Dubai Swing. Add to this a 20th spot at the WGC-CA and his first taster of the masters it’s already been a memorable year for the South African. He’s played little golf in the last month so comes here pretty fresh and safe in the knowledge that he’s going to have his best season ever (10th in the Race to Dubai and already earned more prize money this season than any other). He’s finished in the top 20 on this track before and could make a mockery of his 50/1 price.
Finally, we’ve put up Brett Rumford as our third 50/1 shot. The Aussie won here back in 2004 and has shown glimpses recently in getting his game back on course with a 15th place finish at the Ballantines Championship last month.
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