It’s the second major of the year and traditionally one of the toughest, with invariably long rough and skinny fairways to master along the way.  The US Open starts on Thursday at New York’s Bethpage Black golf course with Tiger Woods looking to retain the title he won in dramatic circumstances last year.  He was the only golfer to shoot a sub par 72 holes back in 2002 with this tough course and the inclement weather holding no prisoners.

In a bid to pick out this years winner, I’ve taken five aspects into account.  Firstly, they have to be able to hit the fairway with such perilous rough and tight fairways, so they have to be straight off the tee.  To win any major you have to have a hot putter.  These greens will be lightning fast so I’ll be looking at the putting stats.   You cannot ignore form, both current and course.  We have to go back all the way to 2002 to when this course was last played and as I’ve already commented, only Tiger finished under-par so the course form here will be hard to come by.  US Open form is also a good judge, as most US Open courses are set up the same way, plus you can gauge the players ability to perform in a major such as this.

Now of course, put all that into a computer and Tiger will get spat back out at you with the result being him priced up as 13/8 favourite with totesport.  Two wins from his seven starts this year after knee surgery is impressive and if he can hit the fairways like he did last week at Muirfield Village he’ll be the one to beat come Sunday.  His driving was suspect in this years two toughest tests to date though at Sawgrass and Augusta and I wouldn’t be a backer at such a short price.

So, who can beat the Tiger?

I’ve picked out five players who I think will make the weekend and give you a run for your money.  The first and shortest price of my picks is Jim Furyk.  Furyk ticks the boxes in terms of driving accuracy and his solid short game.  He has three top ten finishes to his name in his last three tournaments, including runner up last time out behind Tiger at Memorial.  He’s a US Open winner back in 2003 and he finished runner up in 2006 and 2007.  At 25/1 with totesport I think he offers the best value of those at the top end of the betting.

Brian Gay again ticks the boxes in terms of his accuracy and form on the greens, plus he’s in the form of his life picking up his second win of the season at the St Jude’s Classic last week.  If anything, that win probably goes against him as it’ll be a big ask for him to maintain this momentum in tougher conditions this week but at 66/1 he ticks all the boxes bar US Open form and is worth a speculative each-way bet.

There’s a couple of players I don’t think can win but could be worth an each-way shout.  Robert Allenby finished 12th last time the US Open came to Bethpage and is one of the straightest hitters on tour.  His putter can let him down from 10 feet and shorter, plus he seems brittle when in contention coming down the stretch.  However, he’s in good form after his fourth last week and at 66/1 I’d be having a punt for him to finish in the top five.

Tim Clark is getting a reputation for choking and his search for his first tour win in the States goes on after missing a tiddler for victory a fortnight ago in Texas.  However, he’s very straight and is in the top twenty in the putting stats too.  He has finished third in a US Open previously and performed well at Augusta two months ago.  At 90/1 with totesport he’s another I’d want to back to finish in the places.

I can’t really see a European winner this year.  The top ranked Europeans have gone missing of late with Sergio Garcia and Padraig Harrington in poor form and Henrik Stenson seemingly gone off the boil since his memorable win at Sawgrass.  I’d say this years come too soon for Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood is not at the same level he was this time last year when finishing runner up.  Paul Casey is the form horse of the Europeans but I don’t think he has the short game for a US Open win and the trio of Ian Poulter, Luke Donald and Justin Rose seemingly not good enough. 

Graeme McDowell would probably be my pick of the Europeans.  at 80/1 he’s not the shortest price but he was the highest placed European in the first major of the year at Augusta and comes here off the back of a final round 63 which catapulted him into the top ten in Ohio last week. You can also back G-Mac to be top European at 20/1 with totesport.

For all your golf betting this week visit totesport.