World Golf Championships Betting Preview
Tuesday, February 24th, 2009The WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship is dominated by the return to action of world number one and the best player ever Tiger Woods. That’s right, Tiger is back, just in time as he bids to get a few tournaments under his belt pre-US Masters in April. The betting is affected because of this but it’s also worth remembering that this is match-play, which suits some players better than ever.
So Tiger has been installed as 5/1 favourite with totesport to retain the crown he won this time last year. There’s two ways of looking at this price, it could be deemed big, as a fit on form Tiger on a course he plays well would usually be a lot shorter than this going into a tournament. But, it could be deemed short, due to the length of absence from the course, with the potential for him to be a little ring rusty. This argument is slightly tempered by the fact he won the US Open on one leg last year, but surely there’s question marks over whether Tiger can manage walking the potential six rounds of golf in five days it’ll take for him to win it. With this in mind, he’s best left watched this week (although I also said this about Phil Mickelson last week!).
Tiger’s the number one seed and plays in the Bobby Jones section of the draw. If he’s not going to win it who else has claims from that quarter of the draw? Geoff Ogilvy shines out at you like a beacon, having lost in the final here two years ago, he’s shown some fine form so far in 2009 with a win at the Mercedes-Benz Championship in Hawaii back in January. Providing Tiger’s not firing on all cylinders he has the game to make it through this quarter of the draw and at 20/1 with totesport has a lively chance.
Just a quick word on Rory McIlroy who plays in his first WGC Matchplay. McIlroy is a 40/1 chance and this is his first reappearance since his debut win on tour at the Dubai Desert Classic a few weeks ago. He’ll come on for that win and would love to see him play Woods in a potential third round match up.
In the Ben Hogan quarter, heavyweights Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood compete. Vijay has made a slow recovery from injury and although has a solid record here in the last couple of years (fourth round in 2008) he can be dismissed here. Els is having a very poor start to 2009 and will need a significant return to form to get past his first round opponent Soren Hansen who played well at the Ryder Cup. There form is reflected in the odds with the pair 50/1 and 45/1 respectively and they suggest there’s better options elsewhere.
Westwood is a 33/1 shot and hasn’t been able to plant four successive good rounds together so far this season. He’s not made it past the second round in his last two visits either and can be left alone to progress from this quarter.
I wrote off Phil Mickelson last week and I was made to eat my words, but it’s not going to be a case of once bitten twice shy on this occasion. Phil may have found some form but his record on this course is no great shakes in the match-play, not making it past the second round in the last two attempts. He’s also not won in the singles on Ryder Cup Sunday since 1999 losing his last four matches since then, so you’d be better off investing elsewhere than the 16/1 you can get here.
So where does that leave you from the Ben Hogan quarter? Well Luke Donald (33/1) has played well in the last couple of weeks and has faired well on his two Ryder Cup appearances. Steve Stricker is a 55/1 shot and has two top three finishes to his name in 2009. He made it to the third round last year and actually won the tournament way back in 2001, albeit on a different course. Angel Cabrera knocked both of these players out last year on his way to his fourth round exit. The big Argentinian plays Mickelson in the first round this week but re-discovered some form at the weekend finishing tied 13th at the Northern Trust Open. Cabrera has the length and flamboyance to upset anyone in a match-play situation and is unbeaten in two Presidents Cup singles matches.
The Gary Player quarter sees 20/1 shot Sergio Garcia have the best chance of progressing. He may come up against a second round tough opponent in the shape of Ian Poulter (50/1) but comes here fresh playing in his favourite format. Paul Casey also looks a good shout at 25/1. he’s in excellent form this season and has a superb matchplay record with a win in the World Matchplay Championship at Wentworth back at 2006 and a strong Ryder Cup record. His third and fourth round exits here in the last two years also suggest there’s more to follow.
The Sam Snead quarter looks possibly the weakest on paper of the four, with only Padraig Harrington in the world top five. The Irishman has been blowing hot and cold in 2009 and looks opposable at 35/1 with totesport. Henrik Stenson is probably my main pick for the tournament and is available to back at 16/1. the Swede has been very consistent in 2009 with two top three finishes in the last month and won this tournament two years ago. He followed that up by getting beat in the semi final against Tiger no less so has the course and tournament form to really mount a challenge again in 2009.
Anthony Kim is the next highest ranked player in this section and if he can recreate his Ryder Cup form could well be a force at 16/1 second favourite with totesport. He looks to be too inconsistent so far in 2009 though and I’d be surprised to see him string six good rounds together here.
It’s a pretty difficult task to pick the winner out of this lot and there’s also the likes of Retief Goosen (40/1), Camilo Villegas (28/1), Adam Scott (28/1), Robert Karlsson (33/1), Davis Love III (40/1) and Justin Leonard (100/1)who haven’t even got a mention but all have strong claims.
There’s match betting to get stuck into each-day if you prefer and totesport with be betting in running throughout the live coverage.
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